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V-Lab

State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

26.04%

decreased by 1.15%

1 Week

25.64%

decreased by 1.55%

1 Month

24.43%

decreased by 2.76%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 22, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 43% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.18 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0645
14.42***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1948
44.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7960
159.15***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1510
17.20***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.1781
23.06***

Persistence:

0.954

Half-life:

15 days