State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
26.04%
decreased by 1.15%
1 Week
25.64%
decreased by 1.55%
1 Month
24.43%
decreased by 2.76%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 43% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.18 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0645 | 14.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1948 | 44.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7960 | 159.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1510 | 17.20*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1781 | 23.06*** |
Persistence:
0.954
Half-life:
15 days
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