State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
26.46%
1 Week
26.75%
1 Month
27.82%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2006 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 300% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.21 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0321 | 3.73*** |
| αARCH | 0.0649 | 6.43*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9346 | 102.25*** |
| γleverage | 0.5186 | 5.08*** |
| δpower | 1.2057 | 5.55*** |
0.989
Persistence64d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0321 | 3.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0649 | 6.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9346 | 102.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5186 | 5.08*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2057 | 5.55*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
64 days
Other State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF Analyses
Other APARCH Analyses on ETFs