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State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

26.46%

increased by 0.04%

1 Week

26.75%

increased by 0.33%

1 Month

27.82%

increased by 1.40%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:20 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 22, 2006 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 300% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.21 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 300% more than positive returnsδ = 1.21 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0321
3.73***
αARCH0.0649
6.43***
βGARCH0.9346
102.25***
γleverage0.5186
5.08***
δpower1.2057
5.55***

0.989

Persistence

64d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0321
3.73***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0649
6.43***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9346
102.25***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5186
5.08***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.2057
5.55***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

64 days