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State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

27.31%

decreased by 0.75%

1 Week

27.48%

decreased by 0.58%

1 Month

28.89%

increased by 0.83%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC

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graph of State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 22, 2006 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow31
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.7262
15.26***
γleverage0.1451
5.20***
λ₁tau intercept0.1829
2.39**
λ₂forecast adj.0.2355
3.05***
λ₃tau persistence0.7334
8.53***

0.799

Persistence

3d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7262
15.26***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1451
5.20***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.1829
2.39**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2355
3.05***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7334
8.53***

Persistence:

0.799

Half-life:

3 days