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State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026

1 Day

24.26%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Week

25.91%

increased by 1.60%

1 Month

28.66%

increased by 4.35%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 10:00 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 22, 2006 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow31
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.7250
15.15***
γleverage0.1451
5.19***
λ₁tau intercept0.1845
2.39**
λ₂forecast adj.0.2380
3.06***
λ₃tau persistence0.7305
8.41***

0.798

Persistence

3d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7250
15.15***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1451
5.19***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.1845
2.39**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2380
3.06***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7305
8.41***

Persistence:

0.798

Half-life:

3 days