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State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

26.81%

decreased by 0.09%

1 Week

28.28%

increased by 1.38%

1 Month

29.90%

increased by 3.00%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 22, 2006 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow31
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.7237
15.06***
γleverage0.1454
5.19***
λ₁tau intercept0.1863
2.39**
λ₂forecast adj.0.2398
3.05***
λ₃tau persistence0.7286
8.32***

0.796

Persistence

3d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7237
15.06***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1454
5.19***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.1863
2.39**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2398
3.05***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7286
8.32***

Persistence:

0.796

Half-life:

3 days