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V-Lab

State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

30.15%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Week

31.50%

increased by 1.30%

1 Month

32.13%

increased by 1.93%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:46 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 22, 2006 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow31
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.5988
7.44***
γleverage0.1242
2.86***
λ₁tau intercept1.5685
1.00
λ₂forecast adj.0.5665
2.77***
λ₃tau persistence0.1530
0.34

0.661

Persistence

2d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5988
7.44***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1242
2.86***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

1.5685
1.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.5665
2.77***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.1530
0.34

Persistence:

0.661

Half-life:

2 days