State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
29.84%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Week
31.74%
increased by 1.74%
1 Month
33.17%
increased by 3.17%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5838 | 26.71*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1259 | 2.09** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.6780 | 0.23 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.6005 | 0.37 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.1026 | 0.05 |
Persistence:
0.647
Half-life:
2 days
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