State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
44.53%
decreased by 4.29%
1 Week
41.97%
decreased by 6.85%
1 Month
38.77%
decreased by 10.05%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:52 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2006 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 31 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.7251 | 15.31*** |
| γleverage | 0.1466 | 5.26*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.1819 | 2.40** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.2327 | 3.06*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.7368 | 8.70*** |
0.798
Persistence3d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7251 | 15.31*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1466 | 5.26*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1819 | 2.40** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2327 | 3.06*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7368 | 8.70*** |
Persistence:
0.798
Half-life:
3 days
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