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V-Lab

State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

33.41%

decreased by 0.57%

1 Week

35.56%

increased by 1.58%

1 Month

37.90%

increased by 3.92%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 22, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5842
26.41***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1261
2.11**
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

1.6719
0.23
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.5983
0.36
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.1059
0.05

Persistence:

0.647

Half-life:

2 days