State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
24.26%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
25.91%
increased by 1.60%
1 Month
28.66%
increased by 4.35%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 10:00 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2006 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 31 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.7250 | 15.15*** |
| γleverage | 0.1451 | 5.19*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.1845 | 2.39** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.2380 | 3.06*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.7305 | 8.41*** |
0.798
Persistence3d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7250 | 15.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1451 | 5.19*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1845 | 2.39** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2380 | 3.06*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7305 | 8.41*** |
Persistence:
0.798
Half-life:
3 days
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