V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
30.15%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
31.50%
increased by 1.30%
1 Month
32.13%
increased by 1.93%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2006 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 31 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.5988 | 7.44*** |
| γleverage | 0.1242 | 2.86*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 1.5685 | 1.00 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.5665 | 2.77*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.1530 | 0.34 |
0.661
Persistence2d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5988 | 7.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1242 | 2.86*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.5685 | 1.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5665 | 2.77*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.1530 | 0.34 |
Persistence:
0.661
Half-life:
2 days
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