V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
33.41%
decreased by 0.57%
1 Week
35.56%
increased by 1.58%
1 Month
37.90%
increased by 3.92%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5842 | 26.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1261 | 2.11** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.6719 | 0.23 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5983 | 0.36 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.1059 | 0.05 |
Persistence:
0.647
Half-life:
2 days
Other State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on ETFs