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State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

44.53%

decreased by 4.29%

1 Week

41.97%

decreased by 6.85%

1 Month

38.77%

decreased by 10.05%

Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:52 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 22, 2006 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow31
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.7251
15.31***
γleverage0.1466
5.26***
λ₁tau intercept0.1819
2.40**
λ₂forecast adj.0.2327
3.06***
λ₃tau persistence0.7368
8.70***

0.798

Persistence

3d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7251
15.31***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1466
5.26***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.1819
2.40**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2327
3.06***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7368
8.70***

Persistence:

0.798

Half-life:

3 days