V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
27.51%
increased by 0.01%
1 Week
27.99%
increased by 0.49%
1 Month
29.71%
increased by 2.21%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 10:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2006 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 28 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 28 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 28-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0447 | 0.67 |
| αARCH | 0.1121 | 4.08*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9753 | 45.02*** |
| γleverage | -0.0357 | -0.71 |
0.975
Persistence28d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0447 | 0.67 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1121 | 4.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9753 | 45.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0357 | -0.71 |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
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