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State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

36.38%

decreased by 1.54%

1 Week

36.40%

decreased by 1.52%

1 Month

36.50%

decreased by 1.42%

Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:52 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 22, 2006 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 90 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.85 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~90 daysv = 10.85 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run5.7600
2.06**
αscore0.0633
8.56***
βpersistence0.9924
241.45***
νDF10.8537
0.90

0.992

Persistence

90d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

5.7600
2.06**
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0633
8.56***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9924
241.45***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

10.8537
0.90

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

90 days