V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
37.09%
decreased by 0.86%
1 Week
37.11%
decreased by 0.84%
1 Month
37.18%
decreased by 0.77%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 87 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.21 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.7966 | 4.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0614 | 28.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9921 | 494.05*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.2126 | 3.38*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
87 days
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