V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
25.89%
increased by 0.47%
1 Week
26.12%
increased by 0.70%
1 Month
26.96%
increased by 1.54%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2006 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 89 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~89 daysv = 9.00 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.6859 | 1.17 |
| αARCH | 0.0618 | 6.69*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9922 | 138.25*** |
| νDF | 9.0015 | 0.74 |
0.992
Persistence89d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.6859 | 1.17 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0618 | 6.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9922 | 138.25*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.0015 | 0.74 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
89 days
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