State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
28.61%
decreased by 1.19%
1 Week
28.78%
decreased by 1.02%
1 Month
29.44%
decreased by 0.36%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 87 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.17 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.7806 | 4.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0614 | 28.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9920 | 492.81*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.1650 | 3.43*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
87 days
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