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State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

37.09%

decreased by 0.86%

1 Week

37.11%

decreased by 0.84%

1 Month

37.18%

decreased by 0.77%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:17 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 22, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 87 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.21 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.7966
4.36***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0614
28.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9921
494.05***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.2126
3.38***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

87 days