State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
36.38%
1 Week
36.40%
1 Month
36.50%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2006 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 90 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.85 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 5.7600 | 2.06** |
| αscore | 0.0633 | 8.56*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9924 | 241.45*** |
| νDF | 10.8537 | 0.90 |
0.992
Persistence90d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 5.7600 | 2.06** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0633 | 8.56*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9924 | 241.45*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 10.8537 | 0.90 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
90 days
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