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State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

28.61%

decreased by 1.19%

1 Week

28.78%

decreased by 1.02%

1 Month

29.44%

decreased by 0.36%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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graph of State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 22, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 87 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.17 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.7806
4.37***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0614
28.82***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9920
492.81***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.1650
3.43***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

87 days