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State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

26.76%

decreased by 0.68%

1 Week

26.96%

decreased by 0.48%

1 Month

27.72%

increased by 0.28%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC

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graph of State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 22, 2006 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 90 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.75 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~90 daysv = 10.75 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.6593
2.07**
αARCH0.0632
8.54***
βGARCH0.9923
241.44***
νDF10.7475
0.91

0.992

Persistence

90d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.6593
2.07**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0632
8.54***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9923
241.44***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

10.7475
0.91

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

90 days