V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
26.76%
decreased by 0.68%
1 Week
26.96%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Month
27.72%
increased by 0.28%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2006 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 90 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.75 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~90 daysv = 10.75 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.6593 | 2.07** |
| αARCH | 0.0632 | 8.54*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9923 | 241.44*** |
| νDF | 10.7475 | 0.91 |
0.992
Persistence90d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.6593 | 2.07** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0632 | 8.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9923 | 241.44*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 10.7475 | 0.91 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
90 days
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