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State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

25.89%

increased by 0.47%

1 Week

26.12%

increased by 0.70%

1 Month

26.96%

increased by 1.54%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:46 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 22, 2006 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 89 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~89 daysv = 9.00 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.6859
1.17
αARCH0.0618
6.69***
βGARCH0.9922
138.25***
νDF9.0015
0.74

0.992

Persistence

89d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.6859
1.17
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0618
6.69***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9922
138.25***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.0015
0.74

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

89 days