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V-Lab

State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

26.97%

decreased by 0.12%

1 Week

27.59%

increased by 0.50%

1 Month

29.55%

increased by 2.46%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:46 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 22, 2006 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 23 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 23 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 23-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.1559
0.80
αARCH0.0260
0.77
βGARCH0.9124
51.83***
γleverage0.0634
0.56

0.970

Persistence

23d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1559
0.80
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0260
0.77
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9124
51.83***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0634
0.56

Persistence:

0.970

Half-life:

23 days