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V-Lab

State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

34.80%

decreased by 0.89%

1 Week

34.91%

decreased by 0.78%

1 Month

35.26%

decreased by 0.43%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:17 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 22, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 313% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1683
3.06***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0233
2.51**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9085
216.62***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0728
2.23**

Persistence:

0.968

Half-life:

21 days