Skip to main content
V-Lab

State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

28.16%

decreased by 0.58%

1 Week

28.74%

decreased by 0.00%

1 Month

30.57%

increased by 1.83%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 22, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 314% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1678
3.04***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0232
2.51**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9087
216.26***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0728
2.24**

Persistence:

0.968

Half-life:

22 days