State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
44.87%
decreased by 1.52%
1 Week
44.73%
decreased by 1.66%
1 Month
44.18%
decreased by 2.21%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:52 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2006 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 340% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 340% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0550 | 3.18*** |
| αARCH | 0.0226 | 2.31** |
| βGARCH | 0.9288 | 101.67*** |
| γleverage | 0.0769 | 3.11*** |
0.990
Persistence68d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0550 | 3.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0226 | 2.31** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9288 | 101.67*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0769 | 3.11*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
68 days
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