V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
34.80%
decreased by 0.89%
1 Week
34.91%
decreased by 0.78%
1 Month
35.26%
decreased by 0.43%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 313% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1683 | 3.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0233 | 2.51** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9085 | 216.62*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0728 | 2.23** |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
Other State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on ETFs