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State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

29.43%

decreased by 0.54%

1 Week

29.59%

decreased by 0.38%

1 Month

30.19%

increased by 0.22%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC

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graph of State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 22, 2006 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 351% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 351% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0537
3.12***
αARCH0.0219
2.27**
βGARCH0.9296
103.10***
γleverage0.0769
3.13***

0.990

Persistence

69d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0537
3.12***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0219
2.27**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9296
103.10***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0769
3.13***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

69 days