State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
28.16%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Week
28.74%
decreased by 0.00%
1 Month
30.57%
increased by 1.83%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 314% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1678 | 3.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0232 | 2.51** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9087 | 216.26*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0728 | 2.24** |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
22 days
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