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State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

44.87%

decreased by 1.52%

1 Week

44.73%

decreased by 1.66%

1 Month

44.18%

decreased by 2.21%

Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:52 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 22, 2006 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 340% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 340% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0550
3.18***
αARCH0.0226
2.31**
βGARCH0.9288
101.67***
γleverage0.0769
3.11***

0.990

Persistence

68d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0550
3.18***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0226
2.31**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9288
101.67***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0769
3.11***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

68 days