State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
25.58%
decreased by 0.57%
1 Week
25.85%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Month
26.82%
increased by 0.67%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2006 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 349% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 349% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0537 | 3.12*** |
| αARCH | 0.0219 | 2.27** |
| βGARCH | 0.9297 | 103.31*** |
| γleverage | 0.0766 | 3.12*** |
0.990
Persistence69d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0537 | 3.12*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0219 | 2.27** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9297 | 103.31*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0766 | 3.12*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
69 days
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