V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
26.97%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Week
27.59%
increased by 0.50%
1 Month
29.55%
increased by 2.46%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2006 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 23 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 23 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 23-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1559 | 0.80 |
| αARCH | 0.0260 | 0.77 |
| βGARCH | 0.9124 | 51.83*** |
| γleverage | 0.0634 | 0.56 |
0.970
Persistence23d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1559 | 0.80 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0260 | 0.77 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9124 | 51.83*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0634 | 0.56 |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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