V-Lab
CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
21.36%
increased by 1.94%
1 Week
21.66%
increased by 2.24%
1 Month
22.69%
increased by 3.27%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 09:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 2021 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 30 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 30 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 30-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0676 | 2.02** |
| αARCH | 0.0974 | 1.29 |
| βGARCH | 0.8546 | 23.04*** |
| γleverage | 0.0510 | 0.45 |
0.977
Persistence30d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0676 | 2.02** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0974 | 1.29 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8546 | 23.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0510 | 0.45 |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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