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CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

25.21%

decreased by 1.41%

1 Week

25.33%

decreased by 1.29%

1 Month

25.71%

decreased by 0.91%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 09:04 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 17, 2021 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 30 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 30 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 30-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0682
2.05**
αARCH0.0963
1.30
βGARCH0.8555
23.40***
γleverage0.0514
0.46

0.978

Persistence

30d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0682
2.05**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0963
1.30
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8555
23.40***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0514
0.46

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

30 days