V-Lab
CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
29.79%
decreased by 1.99%
1 Week
29.78%
decreased by 2.00%
1 Month
29.77%
decreased by 2.01%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 09:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 2021 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 40 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 40 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0596 | 7.27*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0950 | 5.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8633 | 92.99*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0493 | 1.77* |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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