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CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

18.07%

increased by 2.32%

1 Week

18.59%

increased by 2.84%

1 Month

20.29%

increased by 4.54%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 09:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 17, 2021 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 31 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 31 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 31-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0676
2.02**
αARCH0.0983
1.31
βGARCH0.8536
22.96***
γleverage0.0514
0.45

0.978

Persistence

31d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0676
2.02**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0983
1.31
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8536
22.96***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0514
0.45

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days