CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
25.21%
decreased by 1.41%
1 Week
25.33%
decreased by 1.29%
1 Month
25.71%
decreased by 0.91%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 09:04 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 2021 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 30 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 30 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 30-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0682 | 2.05** |
| αARCH | 0.0963 | 1.30 |
| βGARCH | 0.8555 | 23.40*** |
| γleverage | 0.0514 | 0.46 |
0.978
Persistence30d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0682 | 2.05** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0963 | 1.30 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8555 | 23.40*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0514 | 0.46 |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
30 days
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