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V-Lab

CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

37.84%

decreased by 1.86%

1 Week

37.64%

decreased by 2.06%

1 Month

36.91%

decreased by 2.79%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 09:40 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 17, 2021 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 44 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 44 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0577
6.71***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0973
5.08***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8638
91.32***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0466
1.64

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

44 days