CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
37.84%
decreased by 1.86%
1 Week
37.64%
decreased by 2.06%
1 Month
36.91%
decreased by 2.79%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 09:40 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 2021 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 44 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 44 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0577 | 6.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0973 | 5.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8638 | 91.32*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0466 | 1.64 |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
44 days
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