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V-Lab

CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

29.79%

decreased by 1.99%

1 Week

29.78%

decreased by 2.00%

1 Month

29.77%

decreased by 2.01%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 09:09 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 17, 2021 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 40 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 40 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0596
7.27***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0950
5.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8633
92.99***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0493
1.77*

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

40 days