CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
39.60%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
39.28%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Month
38.13%
decreased by 1.53%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 10:02 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 2021 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 38 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 38 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 38-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0632 | 2.02** |
| αARCH | 0.0842 | 1.16 |
| βGARCH | 0.8648 | 24.85*** |
| γleverage | 0.0655 | 0.60 |
0.982
Persistence38d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0632 | 2.02** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0842 | 1.16 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8648 | 24.85*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0655 | 0.60 |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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