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V-Lab

CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

36.40%

decreased by 2.50%

1 Week

36.19%

decreased by 2.71%

1 Month

35.41%

decreased by 3.49%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 09:40 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 17, 2021 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.19) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0584
7.21***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1265
15.87***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8555
97.01***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1925
4.00***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days