CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
36.40%
decreased by 2.50%
1 Week
36.19%
decreased by 2.71%
1 Month
35.41%
decreased by 3.49%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 09:40 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 2021 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.19) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0584 | 7.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1265 | 15.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8555 | 97.01*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1925 | 4.00*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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