V-Lab
Grayscale Ethereum Staking Mini ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
64.05%
decreased by 2.76%
1 Week
68.97%
increased by 2.16%
1 Month
69.97%
increased by 3.16%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 23, 2024 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 6.28) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 15.0000 | 26.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0775 | 5.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0010 | 5.43*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 6.2814 | 6.51*** |
Persistence:
0.079
Half-life:
0 days
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