V-Lab
iShares China Large-Cap ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
21.59%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Week
21.93%
increased by 0.07%
1 Month
23.10%
increased by 1.24%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 09:42 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 8, 2004 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.37) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0467 | 3.26*** |
| αARCH | 0.0830 | 6.63*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9017 | 66.39*** |
| γleverage | 0.3681 | 2.54** |
0.985
Persistence45d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0467 | 3.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0830 | 6.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9017 | 66.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3681 | 2.54** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
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