iShares China Large-Cap ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
21.38%
increased by 0.61%
1 Week
21.73%
increased by 0.96%
1 Month
22.97%
increased by 2.20%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 8, 2004 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.37) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0474 | 13.01*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0836 | 26.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9009 | 263.42*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3734 | 10.23*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
44 days
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