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iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026

1 Day

15.26%

decreased by 0.84%

1 Week

15.57%

decreased by 0.53%

1 Month

16.63%

increased by 0.53%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/06/2024

to

10/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 5, 1996 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.60) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0012
0.13
αARCH0.0913
9.02***
βGARCH0.8931
101.05***
γleverage0.5960
5.23***

0.984

Persistence

44d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0012
0.13
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0913
9.02***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8931
101.05***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5960
5.23***

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

44 days