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V-Lab

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

15.35%

decreased by 0.77%

1 Week

15.66%

decreased by 0.46%

1 Month

16.72%

increased by 0.60%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 5, 1996 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.60) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0012
0.52
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0910
35.87***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8933
403.48***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.6007
20.75***

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

44 days