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V-Lab

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

11.45%

decreased by 0.34%

1 Week

12.00%

increased by 0.21%

1 Month

13.58%

increased by 1.79%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 5, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0190
7.01***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1022
8.08***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8610
67.58***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-0.0355
-0.86
γ2-0.0028
-0.04
γ30.1490
3.16***
γ4-0.2294
-5.67***
γ50.1577
4.07***
γ60.0030
0.07
γ7-0.0803
-1.43
γ80.0481
0.93

Persistence:

0.963

Half-life:

18 days