V-Lab
iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
15.21%
decreased by 0.65%
1 Week
15.44%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Month
16.17%
increased by 0.31%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 5, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0223 | 7.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1023 | 8.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8607 | 67.81*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0352 | -0.85 |
| γ2 | -0.0038 | -0.06 |
| γ3 | 0.1506 | 3.20*** |
| γ4 | -0.2309 | -5.70*** |
| γ5 | 0.1585 | 4.05*** |
| γ6 | 0.0010 | 0.02 |
| γ7 | -0.0739 | -1.29 |
| γ8 | 0.0401 | 0.77 |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
18 days
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