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V-Lab

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

12.47%

decreased by 0.20%

1 Week

13.13%

increased by 0.46%

1 Month

14.57%

increased by 1.90%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:19 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 5, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0162
3.93***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8614
291.50***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1335
23.40***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0764
1.41
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.3174
1.36
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.6363
2.38**

Persistence:

0.944

Half-life:

12 days