V-Lab
iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
14.13%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Week
14.23%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Month
14.82%
increased by 0.17%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 5, 1996 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 76 | |
| αARCH | 0.0163 | 0.87 |
| βGARCH | 0.8622 | 72.35*** |
| γleverage | 0.1328 | 6.17*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0776 | 1.81* |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.3233 | 3.61*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.6293 | 5.66*** |
0.945
Persistence12d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0163 | 0.87 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8622 | 72.35*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1328 | 6.17*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0776 | 1.81* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3233 | 3.61*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6293 | 5.66*** |
Persistence:
0.945
Half-life:
12 days
Other iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on ETFs