V-Lab
iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
15.53%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Week
15.78%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Month
17.13%
increased by 1.16%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 5, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0170 | 4.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8604 | 286.43*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1309 | 22.72*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0821 | 1.28 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3408 | 1.23 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6099 | 1.92* |
Persistence:
0.943
Half-life:
12 days
Other iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on ETFs