V-Lab
iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
12.47%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Week
13.13%
increased by 0.46%
1 Month
14.57%
increased by 1.90%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 5, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0162 | 3.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8614 | 291.50*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1335 | 23.40*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0764 | 1.41 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3174 | 1.36 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6363 | 2.38** |
Persistence:
0.944
Half-life:
12 days
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