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V-Lab

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

15.53%

decreased by 0.44%

1 Week

15.78%

decreased by 0.19%

1 Month

17.13%

increased by 1.16%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 5, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0170
4.02***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8604
286.43***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1309
22.72***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0821
1.28
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.3408
1.23
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.6099
1.92*

Persistence:

0.943

Half-life:

12 days