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iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

14.13%

decreased by 0.52%

1 Week

14.23%

decreased by 0.42%

1 Month

14.82%

increased by 0.17%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC

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graph of iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 5, 1996 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow76
αARCH0.0163
0.87
βGARCH0.8622
72.35***
γleverage0.1328
6.17***
λ₁tau intercept0.0776
1.81*
λ₂forecast adj.0.3233
3.61***
λ₃tau persistence0.6293
5.66***

0.945

Persistence

12d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0163
0.87
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8622
72.35***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1328
6.17***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0776
1.81*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.3233
3.61***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.6293
5.66***

Persistence:

0.945

Half-life:

12 days