V-Lab
iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
13.33%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Week
13.58%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
14.56%
increased by 0.99%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 5, 1996 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 234% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 234% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0128 | 1.78* |
| αARCH | 0.1658 | 7.04*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9810 | 255.61*** |
| γleverage | -0.0894 | -5.48*** |
0.981
Persistence36d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0128 | 1.78* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1658 | 7.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9810 | 255.61*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0894 | -5.48*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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