iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
15.52%
increased by 1.41%
1 Week
15.68%
increased by 1.57%
1 Month
16.29%
increased by 2.18%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:41 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 5, 1996 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.78 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~70 daysv = 7.78 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.0085 | 1.71* |
| αARCH | 0.0853 | 9.47*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9902 | 172.84*** |
| νDF | 7.7786 | 1.67* |
0.990
Persistence70d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0085 | 1.71* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0853 | 9.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9902 | 172.84*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.7786 | 1.67* |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
70 days
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