V-Lab
iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
10.87%
decreased by 0.53%
1 Week
11.22%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Month
12.42%
increased by 1.02%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 5, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.73 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0204 | 6.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0856 | 37.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9902 | 684.32*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.7349 | 6.72*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
70 days
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