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V-Lab

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

10.95%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Week

11.29%

increased by 0.32%

1 Month

12.47%

increased by 1.50%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 5, 1996 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.74 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~71 daysv = 7.74 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.0190
1.69*
αARCH0.0856
9.51***
βGARCH0.9903
172.04***
νDF7.7433
1.68*

0.990

Persistence

71d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.0190
1.69*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0856
9.51***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9903
172.04***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.7433
1.68*

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

71 days