V-Lab
iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
12.98%
decreased by 0.70%
1 Week
13.23%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Month
14.14%
increased by 0.46%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 5, 1996 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.77 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~70 daysv = 7.77 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.0143 | 1.70* |
| αARCH | 0.0856 | 9.47*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9902 | 172.18*** |
| νDF | 7.7724 | 1.67* |
0.990
Persistence70d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0143 | 1.70* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0856 | 9.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9902 | 172.18*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.7724 | 1.67* |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
70 days
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