V-Lab
iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
11.07%
increased by 0.14%
1 Week
11.49%
increased by 0.56%
1 Month
12.92%
increased by 1.99%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 5, 1996 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 321% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 321% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0244 | 5.23*** |
| αARCH | 0.0342 | 2.39** |
| βGARCH | 0.8996 | 101.39*** |
| γleverage | 0.1098 | 4.88*** |
0.989
Persistence61d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0244 | 5.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0342 | 2.39** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8996 | 101.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1098 | 4.88*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
61 days
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