V-Lab
iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
14.72%
decreased by 0.55%
1 Week
14.97%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Month
15.85%
increased by 0.58%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 5, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 306% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0247 | 21.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0349 | 9.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9001 | 402.37*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1069 | 18.92*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
59 days
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