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iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

13.76%

decreased by 0.49%

1 Week

14.04%

decreased by 0.21%

1 Month

15.05%

increased by 0.80%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC

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graph of iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 5, 1996 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 320% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 320% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0244
5.24***
αARCH0.0342
2.38**
βGARCH0.8997
101.38***
γleverage0.1096
4.88***

0.989

Persistence

61d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0244
5.24***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0342
2.38**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8997
101.38***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1096
4.88***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

61 days