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iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

15.31%

increased by 2.10%

1 Week

15.53%

increased by 2.32%

1 Month

16.33%

increased by 3.12%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 5, 1996 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 320% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 320% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0243
5.23***
αARCH0.0341
2.38**
βGARCH0.9001
101.55***
γleverage0.1091
4.87***

0.989

Persistence

61d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0243
5.23***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0341
2.38**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9001
101.55***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1091
4.87***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

61 days