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V-Lab

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

12.63%

decreased by 0.15%

1 Week

12.97%

increased by 0.19%

1 Month

14.15%

increased by 1.37%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:23 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 5, 1996 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 321% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 321% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0244
5.24***
αARCH0.0342
2.38**
βGARCH0.8996
101.34***
γleverage0.1098
4.88***

0.989

Persistence

61d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0244
5.24***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0342
2.38**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8996
101.34***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1098
4.88***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

61 days