Skip to main content
V-Lab

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

11.01%

decreased by 0.30%

1 Week

11.43%

increased by 0.12%

1 Month

12.89%

increased by 1.58%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 5, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 321% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0246
20.98***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0342
9.52***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8995
404.62***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1099
19.52***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

61 days