iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
15.31%
increased by 2.10%
1 Week
15.53%
increased by 2.32%
1 Month
16.33%
increased by 3.12%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 5, 1996 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 320% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 320% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0243 | 5.23*** |
| αARCH | 0.0341 | 2.38** |
| βGARCH | 0.9001 | 101.55*** |
| γleverage | 0.1091 | 4.87*** |
0.989
Persistence61d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0243 | 5.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0341 | 2.38** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9001 | 101.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1091 | 4.87*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
61 days
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