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V-Lab

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

11.07%

increased by 0.14%

1 Week

11.49%

increased by 0.56%

1 Month

12.92%

increased by 1.99%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 5, 1996 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 321% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 321% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0244
5.23***
αARCH0.0342
2.39**
βGARCH0.8996
101.39***
γleverage0.1098
4.88***

0.989

Persistence

61d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0244
5.23***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0342
2.39**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8996
101.39***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1098
4.88***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

61 days