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iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026

1 Day

13.66%

decreased by 0.49%

1 Week

13.95%

decreased by 0.20%

1 Month

14.96%

increased by 0.81%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/28/2024

to

10/28/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 5, 1996 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 319% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 319% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0242
5.22***
αARCH0.0341
2.38**
βGARCH0.9002
101.61***
γleverage0.1089
4.86***

0.989

Persistence

61d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0242
5.22***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0341
2.38**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9002
101.61***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1089
4.86***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

61 days