V-Lab
iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
11.01%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Week
11.43%
increased by 0.12%
1 Month
12.89%
increased by 1.58%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 5, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 321% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0246 | 20.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0342 | 9.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8995 | 404.62*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1099 | 19.52*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
61 days
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