V-Lab
Grayscale Avalanche Staking ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
51.90%
increased by 1.38%
1 Week
51.93%
increased by 1.41%
1 Month
51.96%
increased by 1.44%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 12, 2026 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.4384 | 0.65 |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.7440 | 2.24** |
| γleverage | 0.0571 | 0.20 |
0.773
Persistence3d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.4384 | 0.65 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7440 | 2.24** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0571 | 0.20 |
Persistence:
0.773
Half-life:
3 days
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