V-Lab
Grayscale Avalanche Staking ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
23.02%
1 Week
22.49%
1 Month
21.33%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 02:25 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 12, 2026 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. The volatility power δ = 3.00 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2423 | 0.90 |
| αARCH | 0.1087 | 0.68 |
| βGARCH | 0.6793 | 3.21*** |
| γleverage | 0.2380 | 1.04 |
| δpower | 3.0000 | 1.18 |
0.882
Persistence6d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2423 | 0.90 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1087 | 0.68 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6793 | 3.21*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2380 | 1.04 |
δ power Transformation power | 3.0000 | 1.18 |
Persistence:
0.882
Half-life:
6 days
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