V-Lab
Calamos S&P 500 ST AL PR ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
1.23%
increased by 0.03%
1 Week
1.23%
increased by 0.03%
1 Month
1.23%
increased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 02:21 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. The volatility power δ = 1.32 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0027 | 1.39 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0938 | 8.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8436 | 45.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0686 | 1.15 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.3217 | 5.14*** |
Persistence:
0.921
Half-life:
8 days
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