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V-Lab

Calamos S&P 500 ST AL PR ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

1.23%

increased by 0.03%

1 Week

1.23%

increased by 0.03%

1 Month

1.23%

increased by 0.03%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 02:21 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Calamos S&P 500 ST AL PR ETF APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. The volatility power δ = 1.32 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0027
1.39
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0938
8.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8436
45.12***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0686
1.15
δ

power

Transformation power

1.3217
5.14***

Persistence:

0.921

Half-life:

8 days