Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
17.53%
1 Week
16.53%
1 Month
13.76%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 10:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 3, 2006 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. The volatility power δ = 0.73 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0245 | 4.84*** |
| αARCH | 0.1772 | 9.99*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8135 | 45.32*** |
| γleverage | 0.0250 | 0.77 |
| δpower | 0.7280 | 2.35** |
0.955
Persistence15d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0245 | 4.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1772 | 9.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8135 | 45.32*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0250 | 0.77 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.7280 | 2.35** |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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