V-Lab
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
23.97%
decreased by 0.64%
1 Week
23.92%
decreased by 0.69%
1 Month
23.74%
decreased by 0.87%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 3, 2006 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 87 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0135 | 14.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0634 | 26.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9287 | 361.52*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
87 days
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