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V-Lab

Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

20.41%

decreased by 0.64%

1 Week

20.59%

decreased by 0.46%

1 Month

21.06%

increased by 0.01%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 3, 2006 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 98% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

86
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0395
11.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8863
175.23***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0386
9.27***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.1271
2.99***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.7066
4.69***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.2052
1.13

Persistence:

0.945

Half-life:

12 days