V-Lab
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
20.41%
decreased by 0.64%
1 Week
20.59%
decreased by 0.46%
1 Month
21.06%
increased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 3, 2006 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 98% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 86 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0395 | 11.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8863 | 175.23*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0386 | 9.27*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1271 | 2.99*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7066 | 4.69*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.2052 | 1.13 |
Persistence:
0.945
Half-life:
12 days
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