V-Lab
iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
21.64%
decreased by 0.70%
1 Week
22.05%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Month
23.25%
increased by 0.91%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0114 | 3.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8528 | 219.90*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1566 | 30.10*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0127 | 6.28*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0261 | 6.17*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9698 | 197.64*** |
Persistence:
0.942
Half-life:
12 days
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