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iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

22.07%

increased by 0.89%

1 Week

22.14%

increased by 0.96%

1 Month

22.37%

increased by 1.19%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC

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graph of iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow56
αARCH0.0110
0.79
βGARCH0.8538
57.23***
γleverage0.1573
7.66***
λ₁tau intercept0.0123
1.60
λ₂forecast adj.0.0257
2.70***
λ₃tau persistence0.9703
85.91***

0.943

Persistence

12d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0110
0.79
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8538
57.23***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1573
7.66***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0123
1.60
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0257
2.70***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9703
85.91***

Persistence:

0.943

Half-life:

12 days