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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

20.06%

decreased by 0.29%

1 Week

20.61%

increased by 0.26%

1 Month

21.98%

increased by 1.63%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0112
3.03***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8534
222.71***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1575
30.46***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0122
6.35***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0254
6.27***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9706
206.03***

Persistence:

0.943

Half-life:

12 days