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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

21.64%

decreased by 0.70%

1 Week

22.05%

decreased by 0.29%

1 Month

23.25%

increased by 0.91%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0114
3.06***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8528
219.90***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1566
30.10***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0127
6.28***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0261
6.17***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9698
197.64***

Persistence:

0.942

Half-life:

12 days