V-Lab
iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
20.06%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Week
20.61%
increased by 0.26%
1 Month
21.98%
increased by 1.63%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0112 | 3.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8534 | 222.71*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1575 | 30.46*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0122 | 6.35*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0254 | 6.27*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9706 | 206.03*** |
Persistence:
0.943
Half-life:
12 days
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