V-Lab
iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
22.07%
increased by 0.89%
1 Week
22.14%
increased by 0.96%
1 Month
22.37%
increased by 1.19%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 56 | |
| αARCH | 0.0110 | 0.79 |
| βGARCH | 0.8538 | 57.23*** |
| γleverage | 0.1573 | 7.66*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0123 | 1.60 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0257 | 2.70*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9703 | 85.91*** |
0.943
Persistence12d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0110 | 0.79 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8538 | 57.23*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1573 | 7.66*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0123 | 1.60 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0257 | 2.70*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9703 | 85.91*** |
Persistence:
0.943
Half-life:
12 days
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