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V-Lab
V-Lab

iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

17.74%

decreased by 0.47%

1 Week

18.44%

increased by 0.23%

1 Month

20.17%

increased by 1.96%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow56
αARCH0.0110
0.79
βGARCH0.8537
57.20***
γleverage0.1575
7.66***
λ₁tau intercept0.0122
1.60
λ₂forecast adj.0.0255
2.70***
λ₃tau persistence0.9705
86.57***

0.943

Persistence

12d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0110
0.79
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8537
57.20***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1575
7.66***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0122
1.60
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0255
2.70***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9705
86.57***

Persistence:

0.943

Half-life:

12 days