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V-Lab

Twin Oak Strategic Solutions ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

23.55%

decreased by 2.13%

1 Week

25.05%

decreased by 0.63%

1 Month

26.29%

increased by 0.61%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Twin Oak Strategic Solutions ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 29, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow31
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.0000
0.00
γleverage0.2187
4.32***
λ₁tau intercept1.0108
5.22***
λ₂forecast adj.1.0000
23.26***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.109

Persistence

0d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.00
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2187
4.32***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

1.0108
5.22***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

1.0000
23.26***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.109

Half-life:

0 days