V-Lab
Twin Oak Strategic Solutions ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
4.15%
decreased by 0.87%
1 Week
14.93%
increased by 9.91%
1 Month
11,593.09%
increased by 11,588.07%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 29, 2026 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 26 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 3.33*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6894 | 3,148.03*** |
| γleverage | 0.3608 | 3,341.14*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0000 | |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.1062 | 339.33*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0002 |
0.870
Persistence5d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 3.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6894 | 3,148.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3608 | 3,341.14*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1062 | 339.33*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0002 |
Persistence:
0.870
Half-life:
5 days
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