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Twin Oak Strategic Solutions ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

20.84%

increased by 3.21%

1 Week

21,941,808.86%

increased by 21,941,791.23%

1 Month

328,308,373,332,146,400,000,000,000,000,000.00%

increased by 328,308,373,332,146,400,000,000,000,000,000.00%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Twin Oak Strategic Solutions ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 29, 2026 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~138 daysLeverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow86
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.9211
728.15***
γleverage0.1478
36.63***
λ₁tau intercept0.0000
0.00
λ₂forecast adj.0.5644
28.89***
λ₃tau persistence0.0004
0.27

0.995

Persistence

138d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

86
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9211
728.15***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1478
36.63***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.5644
28.89***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0004
0.27

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

138 days