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Twin Oak Strategic Solutions ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

62.65%

increased by 11.28%

1 Week

59.44%

increased by 8.07%

1 Month

58.53%

increased by 7.16%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 03:17 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Twin Oak Strategic Solutions ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 29, 2026 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow96
αARCH0.5000
56.24***
βGARCH0.0000
0.00
γleverage-0.5000
-36.74***
λ₁tau intercept7.0807
10.16***
λ₂forecast adj.0.0000
0.00
λ₃tau persistence0.4739
5.20***

0.250

Persistence

1d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

96
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.5000
56.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.00
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.5000
-36.74***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

7.0807
10.16***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.4739
5.20***

Persistence:

0.250

Half-life:

1 days