V-Lab
Twin Oak Strategic Solutions ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
12.26%
1 Week
12.21%
1 Month
12.16%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 29, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138629 trading days (~550.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 66 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.08 |
| βGARCH | 1.0000 | 15.66*** |
| γleverage | 0.0000 | -0.02 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.1827 | 5.73*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0003 | 0.02 |
1.000
Persistence138629d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.08 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 1.0000 | 15.66*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0000 | -0.02 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1827 | 5.73*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0003 | 0.02 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
138629 days
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