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Twin Oak Strategic Solutions ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

4.15%

decreased by 0.87%

1 Week

14.93%

increased by 9.91%

1 Month

11,593.09%

increased by 11,588.07%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Twin Oak Strategic Solutions ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 29, 2026 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow26
αARCH0.0000
3.33***
βGARCH0.6894
3,148.03***
γleverage0.3608
3,341.14***
λ₁tau intercept0.0000
λ₂forecast adj.0.1062
339.33***
λ₃tau persistence0.0002

0.870

Persistence

5d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
3.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6894
3,148.03***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3608
3,341.14***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1062
339.33***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0002

Persistence:

0.870

Half-life:

5 days