Skip to main content
V-Lab

Twin Oak Strategic Solutions ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

13.49%

decreased by 2.11%

1 Week

17.42%

increased by 1.82%

1 Month

71.98%

increased by 56.38%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Twin Oak Strategic Solutions ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 29, 2026 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

61
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0004
13.27***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7496
2.00**
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5000
0.90
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.2361
0.35

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-