Twin Oak Strategic Solutions ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
20.84%
1 Week
21,941,808.86%
1 Month
328,308,373,332,146,400,000,000,000,000,000.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 29, 2026 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 86 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9211 | 728.15*** |
| γleverage | 0.1478 | 36.63*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.5644 | 28.89*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0004 | 0.27 |
0.995
Persistence138d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 86 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9211 | 728.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1478 | 36.63*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5644 | 28.89*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0004 | 0.27 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
138 days
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