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V-Lab
V-Lab

Twin Oak Strategic Solutions ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

12.26%

decreased by 0.15%

1 Week

12.21%

decreased by 0.20%

1 Month

12.16%

decreased by 0.25%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Twin Oak Strategic Solutions ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 29, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138629 trading days (~550.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~138629 days
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow66
αARCH0.0000
0.08
βGARCH1.0000
15.66***
γleverage0.0000
-0.02
λ₁tau intercept0.0000
0.00
λ₂forecast adj.0.1827
5.73***
λ₃tau persistence0.0003
0.02

1.000

Persistence

138629d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.08
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

1.0000
15.66***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0000
-0.02
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1827
5.73***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0003
0.02

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

138629 days