Twin Oak Strategic Solutions ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
62.65%
1 Week
59.44%
1 Month
58.53%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 03:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 29, 2026 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 96 | |
| αARCH | 0.5000 | 56.24*** |
| βGARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| γleverage | -0.5000 | -36.74*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 7.0807 | 10.16*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.4739 | 5.20*** |
0.250
Persistence1d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 96 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5000 | 56.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5000 | -36.74*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 7.0807 | 10.16*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.4739 | 5.20*** |
Persistence:
0.250
Half-life:
1 days
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