V-Lab
Twin Oak Strategic Solutions ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
23.74%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Week
24.96%
increased by 0.66%
1 Month
27.31%
increased by 3.01%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 29, 2026 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. The volatility power δ = 0.63 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1886 | 3.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0488 | 3.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8414 | 17.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | 79.79*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.6343 | 3.25*** |
Persistence:
0.872
Half-life:
5 days
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