Twin Oak Strategic Solutions ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
27.42%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Week
27.40%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Month
27.39%
decreased by 0.20%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 29, 2026 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5831 | 2.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0025 | 0.13 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5546 | 3.21*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | 17.20*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 4.49*** |
Persistence:
0.556
Half-life:
1 days
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