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V-Lab

Twin Oak Strategic Solutions ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

27.42%

decreased by 0.17%

1 Week

27.40%

decreased by 0.19%

1 Month

27.39%

decreased by 0.20%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Twin Oak Strategic Solutions ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 29, 2026 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5831
2.88***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0025
0.13
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5546
3.21***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

1.0000
17.20***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.5000
4.49***

Persistence:

0.556

Half-life:

1 days