V-Lab
Xtrackers S&P 100 Ex Top 20 ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
10.66%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
11.33%
increased by 0.66%
1 Month
12.30%
increased by 1.63%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:21 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 28, 2022 to Aug 14, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1052 | 14.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0464 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7385 | 26.81*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | 0.00 |
δ power Transformation power | 2.0696 | 7.78*** |
Persistence:
0.838
Half-life:
4 days
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