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V-Lab

Xtrackers S&P 100 Ex Top 20 ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026

1 Day

10.61%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Week

10.89%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Month

11.60%

increased by 0.66%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 02:24 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/21/2024

to

10/21/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Xtrackers S&P 100 Ex Top 20 ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 28, 2022 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.01 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 10-day half-lifev = 8.01 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run0.6357
2.98***
αscore0.0625
2.44**
βpersistence0.9316
31.68***
νDF8.0143
0.28

0.932

Persistence

10d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

0.6357
2.98***
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0625
2.44**
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9316
31.68***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.0143
0.28

Persistence:

0.932

Half-life:

10 days