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V-Lab

Xtrackers S&P 100 Ex Top 20 ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

11.73%

increased by 0.21%

1 Week

11.89%

increased by 0.37%

1 Month

12.26%

increased by 0.74%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Xtrackers S&P 100 Ex Top 20 ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 28, 2022 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.96 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-lifev = 7.96 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.6434
3.27***
αARCH0.0653
2.30**
βGARCH0.9169
26.63***
νDF7.9570
0.27

0.917

Persistence

8d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6434
3.27***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0653
2.30**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9169
26.63***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.9570
0.27

Persistence:

0.917

Half-life:

8 days