Xtrackers S&P 100 Ex Top 20 ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
10.61%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Week
10.89%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
11.60%
increased by 0.66%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 02:24 AM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 28, 2022 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.01 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 10-day half-lifev = 8.01 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 0.6357 | 2.98*** |
| αscore | 0.0625 | 2.44** |
| βpersistence | 0.9316 | 31.68*** |
| νDF | 8.0143 | 0.28 |
0.932
Persistence10d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 0.6357 | 2.98*** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0625 | 2.44** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9316 | 31.68*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.0143 | 0.28 |
Persistence:
0.932
Half-life:
10 days
Other Xtrackers S&P 100 Ex Top 20 ETF Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on ETFs