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V-Lab
V-Lab

Xtrackers S&P 100 Ex Top 20 ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026

1 Day

11.61%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Week

12.13%

increased by 0.44%

1 Month

12.79%

increased by 1.10%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:28 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Xtrackers S&P 100 Ex Top 20 ETF SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 28, 2022 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1470
8.31***
αARCH0.1201
1.60
βGARCH0.6760
4.74***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0688
1.08

0.796

Persistence

3d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1470
8.31***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1201
1.60
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6760
4.74***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0688
1.08

Persistence:

0.796

Half-life:

3 days