V-Lab
Purpose Solana ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
32.91%
increased by 0.37%
1 Week
34.25%
increased by 1.71%
1 Month
37.14%
increased by 4.60%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:07 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 16, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8665 | 4.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0904 | 1.72* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8172 | 7.01*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.7767 | -2.15** |
Persistence:
0.908
Half-life:
7 days
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