Purpose Solana ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
58.26%
increased by 3.39%
1 Week
60.53%
increased by 5.66%
1 Month
65.14%
increased by 10.27%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 09:07 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 16, 2025 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 13.20 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-lifev = 13.20 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 19.2508 | 3.00*** |
| αARCH | 0.0868 | 1.15 |
| βGARCH | 0.8978 | 11.07*** |
| νDF | 13.1998 | 0.13 |
0.898
Persistence6d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 19.2508 | 3.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0868 | 1.15 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8978 | 11.07*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 13.1998 | 0.13 |
Persistence:
0.898
Half-life:
6 days
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