V-Lab
Purpose Solana ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
67.34%
increased by 3.98%
1 Week
67.22%
increased by 3.86%
1 Month
66.94%
increased by 3.58%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:38 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 16, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1212 | 6.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1004 | 1.80* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8166 | 8.17*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.1462 | 0.73 |
Persistence:
0.917
Half-life:
8 days
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