Tradr 2x Long USAR Daily ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
181.97%
decreased by 0.63%
1 Week
180.83%
decreased by 1.77%
1 Month
178.12%
decreased by 4.48%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 03:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2026 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1708 | 5.43*** |
| αARCH | 0.0118 | 0.42 |
| βGARCH | 0.9023 | 5.18*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.6709 | 1.26 |
0.914
Persistence8d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1708 | 5.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0118 | 0.42 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9023 | 5.18*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.6709 | 1.26 |
Persistence:
0.914
Half-life:
8 days
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