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V-Lab
V-Lab

Tradr 2x Long USAR Daily ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

180.28%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

180.28%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

180.28%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:23 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Tradr 2x Long USAR Daily ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 13, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1569
4.92***
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.9169
3.87***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ11.0412
1.21

0.917

Persistence

8d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1569
4.92***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9169
3.87***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ11.0412
1.21

Persistence:

0.917

Half-life:

8 days