Tradr 2x Long USAR Daily ETF MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
140.45%
increased by 1.46%
1 Week
140.82%
increased by 1.83%
1 Month
142.00%
increased by 3.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 19-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.0925 | 0.32 |
| αARCH | 0.1201 | 0.91 |
| βGARCH | 0.8432 | 12.64*** |
0.963
Persistence19d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.0925 | 0.32 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1201 | 0.91 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8432 | 12.64*** |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
19 days
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