V-Lab
Tradr 2x Long USAR Daily ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
137.22%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
137.22%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
137.22%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:27 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2026 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0116 | 4.70*** |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9293 | 5.57*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -2.9585 | -1.14 |
0.929
Persistence9d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0116 | 4.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9293 | 5.57*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -2.9585 | -1.14 |
Persistence:
0.929
Half-life:
9 days
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