V-Lab
iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
1.38%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
1.37%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
1.35%
decreased by 0.09%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 10:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 11, 2007 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3824 | 6.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0861 | 5.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8475 | 35.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.2907 | -1.76* |
| γ2 | 0.2697 | 1.16 |
| γ3 | 0.1692 | 1.32 |
| γ4 | -0.0199 | -0.14 |
| γ5 | -0.2139 | -1.33 |
| γ6 | -0.1799 | -1.20 |
| γ7 | 0.8866 | 7.35*** |
| γ8 | -1.2504 | -8.89*** |
| γ9 | 1.4870 | 4.15*** |
Persistence:
0.934
Half-life:
10 days
Other iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF Analyses
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on ETFs