V-Lab
iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
0.56%
increased by 0.01%
1 Week
0.59%
increased by 0.04%
1 Month
0.68%
increased by 0.13%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 11, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0931 | 13.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7487 | 67.26*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0206 | 1.24 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 1.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2549 | 10.18*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7451 | 15.36*** |
Persistence:
0.852
Half-life:
4 days
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