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V-Lab

iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

0.56%

increased by 0.01%

1 Week

0.59%

increased by 0.04%

1 Month

0.68%

increased by 0.13%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:08 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 11, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0931
13.19***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7487
67.26***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0206
1.24
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
1.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2549
10.18***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7451
15.36***

Persistence:

0.852

Half-life:

4 days