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V-Lab

iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

0.37%

increased by 0.02%

1 Week

0.37%

increased by 0.02%

1 Month

0.37%

increased by 0.02%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:08 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 11, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.50 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0009
6.36***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0575
58.06***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
6,795.92***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.5002
13.07***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days