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Franklin Ohio Municipal Income ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

7.77%

decreased by 0.77%

1 Week

7.58%

decreased by 0.96%

1 Month

6.97%

decreased by 1.57%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Franklin Ohio Municipal Income ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 10, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.30 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 16-day half-lifev = 4.30 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0967
0.58
αARCH0.1117
1.54
βGARCH0.9579
20.26***
νDF4.3028
0.56

0.958

Persistence

16d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0967
0.58
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1117
1.54
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9579
20.26***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.3028
0.56

Persistence:

0.958

Half-life:

16 days