V-Lab
Franklin Ohio Municipal Income ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
2.99%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Week
3.39%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
3.53%
increased by 0.16%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:23 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 10, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.22 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0506 | 6.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2151 | 2.15** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3895 | 4.12*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.2199 | 0.97 |
Persistence:
0.389
Half-life:
1 days
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