Franklin Ohio Municipal Income ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
8.07%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Week
7.94%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Month
7.48%
decreased by 0.67%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 10, 2025 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 27 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 27 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.01 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 27-day half-lifev = 6.01 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 0.0988 | 0.79 |
| αscore | 0.0832 | 1.22 |
| βpersistence | 0.9751 | 27.97*** |
| νDF | 6.0093 | 0.26 |
0.975
Persistence27d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 0.0988 | 0.79 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0832 | 1.22 |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9751 | 27.97*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.0093 | 0.26 |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
27 days
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