Franklin Ohio Municipal Income ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
7.77%
decreased by 0.77%
1 Week
7.58%
decreased by 0.96%
1 Month
6.97%
decreased by 1.57%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 10, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.30 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 16-day half-lifev = 4.30 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0967 | 0.58 |
| αARCH | 0.1117 | 1.54 |
| βGARCH | 0.9579 | 20.26*** |
| νDF | 4.3028 | 0.56 |
0.958
Persistence16d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0967 | 0.58 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1117 | 1.54 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9579 | 20.26*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.3028 | 0.56 |
Persistence:
0.958
Half-life:
16 days
Other Franklin Ohio Municipal Income ETF Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on ETFs