V-Lab
Franklin Ohio Municipal Income ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
4.98%
increased by 0.76%
1 Week
4.51%
increased by 0.29%
1 Month
4.11%
decreased by 0.11%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:48 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 10, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-lifeδ = 0.50 · sub-quadratic power
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1571 | 1.42 |
| αARCH | 0.1615 | 1.68* |
| βGARCH | 0.5912 | 3.15*** |
| γleverage | 1.0000 | 406.17*** |
| δpower | 0.5000 | 1.36 |
0.685
Persistence2d
Half-lifeσ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1571 | 1.42 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1615 | 1.68* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5912 | 3.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | 406.17*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 1.36 |
Persistence:
0.685
Half-life:
2 days
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