Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Franklin Ohio Municipal Income ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026

1 Day

4.98%

increased by 0.76%

1 Week

4.51%

increased by 0.29%

1 Month

4.11%

decreased by 0.11%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:48 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Franklin Ohio Municipal Income ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 10, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-lifeδ = 0.50 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.1571
1.42
αARCH0.1615
1.68*
βGARCH0.5912
3.15***
γleverage1.0000
406.17***
δpower0.5000
1.36

0.685

Persistence

2d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1571
1.42
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1615
1.68*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5912
3.15***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

1.0000
406.17***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.5000
1.36

Persistence:

0.685

Half-life:

2 days