V-Lab
Invesco Russell 2000 Dynamic Multifactor ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
14.74%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Week
15.24%
increased by 0.38%
1 Month
16.97%
increased by 2.11%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 26, 2017 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.24 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0382 | 16.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0686 | 16.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9192 | 243.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6821 | 13.78*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2364 | 33.13*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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