V-Lab
Invesco Russell 2000 Dynamic Multifactor ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
15.45%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Week
16.03%
increased by 0.28%
1 Month
17.60%
increased by 1.85%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 02:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 26, 2017 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4957 | 4.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0797 | 3.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8705 | 27.25*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0902 | -2.71*** |
| γ2 | 0.1053 | 2.62*** |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
14 days
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