Twin Oak Strategic Solutions ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
32.74%
increased by 0.87%
1 Week
31.51%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Month
29.03%
decreased by 2.84%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 03:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 29, 2026 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0556 | 5.81*** |
| αARCH | 0.0536 | 1.04 |
| βGARCH | 0.8210 | 4.37*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.1644 | 0.23 |
0.875
Persistence5d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0556 | 5.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0536 | 1.04 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8210 | 4.37*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.1644 | 0.23 |
Persistence:
0.875
Half-life:
5 days
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