V-Lab
Twin Oak Strategic Solutions ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
25.34%
increased by 0.35%
1 Week
25.95%
increased by 0.96%
1 Month
26.67%
increased by 1.68%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 29, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9996 | 5.82*** |
| αARCH | 0.0461 | 0.60 |
| βGARCH | 0.7280 | 1.20 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0053 | 0.01 |
0.774
Persistence3d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9996 | 5.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0461 | 0.60 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7280 | 1.20 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0053 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
0.774
Half-life:
3 days
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