V-Lab
Twin Oak Strategic Solutions ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
22.68%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Week
23.39%
increased by 0.50%
1 Month
24.47%
increased by 1.58%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 29, 2026 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0842 | 5.97*** |
| αARCH | 0.0519 | 0.79 |
| βGARCH | 0.7842 | 2.42** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.4570 | 0.54 |
0.836
Persistence4d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0842 | 5.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0519 | 0.79 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7842 | 2.42** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.4570 | 0.54 |
Persistence:
0.836
Half-life:
4 days
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