Tradr 2X SNDK Long Daily ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
167.32%
increased by 2.08%
1 Week
170.88%
increased by 5.64%
1 Month
179.98%
increased by 14.74%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 02:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 27, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0994 | 4.58*** |
| αARCH | 0.1057 | 1.88* |
| βGARCH | 0.8286 | 10.22*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.5963 | 0.64 |
0.934
Persistence10d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0994 | 4.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1057 | 1.88* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8286 | 10.22*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.5963 | 0.64 |
Persistence:
0.934
Half-life:
10 days
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