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V-Lab

Tradr 2X SNDK Long Daily ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026

1 Day

243.08%

decreased by 90.54%

1 Week

286.83%

decreased by 46.79%

1 Month

519.46%

increased by 185.84%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:20 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Tradr 2X SNDK Long Daily ETF AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 27, 2026 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.097 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

15.0000
3.14***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.6118
20.61***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4855
56.50***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

2.5293
4.46***

Persistence:

1.097

Half-life:

-