V-Lab
Direxion Daily AI and Big Data Bear 2X ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
49.69%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Week
51.88%
increased by 2.08%
1 Month
56.95%
increased by 7.15%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 15, 2024 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -1.45) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9056 | 8.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1586 | 13.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7639 | 55.72*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.4452 | -15.92*** |
Persistence:
0.923
Half-life:
9 days
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