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V-Lab

Direxion Daily AI and Big Data Bear 2X ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

49.69%

decreased by 0.11%

1 Week

51.88%

increased by 2.08%

1 Month

56.95%

increased by 7.15%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Direxion Daily AI and Big Data Bear 2X ETF AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 15, 2024 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -1.45) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9056
8.52***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1586
13.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7639
55.72***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-1.4452
-15.92***

Persistence:

0.923

Half-life:

9 days