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V-Lab
V-Lab

Direxion Daily AI and Big Data Bear 2X ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

44.64%

decreased by 1.31%

1 Week

46.30%

increased by 0.35%

1 Month

51.24%

increased by 5.29%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Direxion Daily AI and Big Data Bear 2X ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 15, 2024 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 20 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 20 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 20-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.5854
1.78*
αARCH0.1773
1.16
βGARCH0.8742
18.65***
γleverage-0.1726
-1.07

0.965

Persistence

20d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5854
1.78*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1773
1.16
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8742
18.65***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1726
-1.07

Persistence:

0.965

Half-life:

20 days