V-Lab
Direxion Daily AI and Big Data Bear 2X ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
51.53%
increased by 1.76%
1 Week
52.59%
increased by 2.82%
1 Month
55.82%
increased by 6.05%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 15, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5919 | 7.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1796 | 4.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8721 | 73.50*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1731 | -4.02*** |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
20 days
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