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V-Lab

Direxion Daily AI and Big Data Bear 2X ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

53.98%

decreased by 0.30%

1 Week

53.95%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Month

53.81%

decreased by 0.47%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of Direxion Daily AI and Big Data Bear 2X ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 15, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.77 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.2997
9.51***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0693
9.39***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
139.68***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.7729
1.88*

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days