V-Lab
Direxion Daily AI and Big Data Bear 2X ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
53.96%
increased by 4.80%
1 Week
53.93%
increased by 4.77%
1 Month
53.80%
increased by 4.64%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 02:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 15, 2024 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.83 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.2976 | 2.38** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0693 | 2.35** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 35.37*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.8293 | 0.47 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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