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V-Lab
V-Lab

Direxion Daily AI and Big Data Bear 2X ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

48.10%

decreased by 2.45%

1 Week

48.07%

decreased by 2.48%

1 Month

47.97%

decreased by 2.58%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Direxion Daily AI and Big Data Bear 2X ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 15, 2024 to Sep 18, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.92 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~693 daysv = 7.92 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst4.3162
2.40**
αARCH0.0682
2.33**
βGARCH0.9990
35.85***
νDF7.9196
0.45

0.999

Persistence

693d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.3162
2.40**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0682
2.33**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
35.85***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.9196
0.45

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days