V-Lab
Direxion Daily AI and Big Data Bear 2X ETF EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
52.36%
decreased by 1.52%
1 Week
53.24%
decreased by 0.64%
1 Month
55.86%
increased by 1.98%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 15, 2024 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1439 | 1.67* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1636 | 2.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9470 | 37.54*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1277 | 2.05** |
Persistence:
0.947
Half-life:
13 days
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