V-Lab
Direxion Daily AI and Big Data Bear 2X ETF Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
40.95%
decreased by 2.00%
1 Week
48.48%
increased by 5.53%
1 Month
61.41%
increased by 18.46%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 02:21 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 16, 2024 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days.
μ
AMEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.1924 | 3.60*** |
| αARCH | 0.4160 | 3.12*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5231 | 6.96*** |
| γleverage | -0.0905 | -0.41 |
0.894
Persistence6d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.1924 | 3.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4160 | 3.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5231 | 6.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0905 | -0.41 |
Persistence:
0.894
Half-life:
6 days
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