V-Lab
Direxion Daily AI and Big Data Bear 2X ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
55.99%
1 Week
57.86%
1 Month
55.47%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 15, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2468 | 21.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5867 | 23.75*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2332 | -14.70*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 7.5260 | 0.37 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3706 | 0.42 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.717
Half-life:
2 days
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