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V-Lab

Direxion Daily AI and Big Data Bear 2X ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

55.99%

increased by 3.05%

1 Week

57.86%

increased by 4.92%

1 Month

55.47%

increased by 2.53%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Direxion Daily AI and Big Data Bear 2X ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 15, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2468
21.60***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5867
23.75***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2332
-14.70***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

7.5260
0.37
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.3706
0.42
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.717

Half-life:

2 days